Latest Rumors

The latest rumors surrounding the Dodgers include a few guys I haven’t mentioned before…Aaron Rowand, Mike Lowell, and Joe Crede.   So let start with Rowand, who is asking for $15 million a year in a long term deal.  Last year he hit 27 HR’s, had 89 RBI’s, and had a .309 average.  While that’s a pretty good season, is that really worth $15 million a year?  If you look at his stats more carefully, you can see that he hit the majority of his home runs last season at home (17 of 27), in a stadium that has been know to give up home runs.  Also, his batting average in the previous two seasons (before 2007) were .262 and .270, and he only had 12 and 13 HR’s those years.  If you ask me, the Dodgers can get equal numbers from Andre Ethier, and much better numbers from Matt Kemp, and these guys play for a fraction of the cost.   So basically, there is no way he is worth that kind of money, and if they Dodgers sign him, they will have another Juan Pierre on their hands.

Although Mike Lowell had a great year last year, I’m still not sold on the guy.  He’s had his fair share of bad years, and he’s not getting any younger.  Basically, it’s a similar situation to Rowand because the Dodgers can probably get similar play out of Andy LaRoach this year, and a much cheaper price.  I’m not saying that Laroach will drive in 120 runs like Lowell did last year, but I can see him getting 20 to 25 home runs if he’s given a full season to play.  He’s been tearing it up for Team USA over the past few weeks, and I think he’s finally ready to make an impact for the Dodgers.  That being said, you can quote me right here right now…if the Dodgers do sign Lowell, he will not hit more than 20 HR’s, and will not break the 90 RBI mark.  Yet, he will still cost the team around $15 million a year.  Once again, not worth it. 

Joe Crede is injury prone and has only had one semi-decent season, where he hit 30 HR’s and had a .283 average.  In each of his other full seasons, he’s hit .261, .239, and .252, and averaged only 20 HR’s.  Unless we are trading DJ Houlton for this guy, then it’s a worthless trade.

Overall, it seems like Colletti wants to make a move just to say that he did.  He thinks that the fans want a change, but he is looking in all the wrong places.  The truth is that the free agent class this year is very weak, and the Dodgers already have guys who can put up great numbers if they are given the opportunity to play a full season.  If you project out Loney and Kemp’s numbers from last season over a 162 games, they would both have hit over 20 HR’s, which would have been better than anyone else on the team.  Also, Billingsley might have won 17 games had he been a starter for the whole season.  And who knows what Delwyn Young’s stats would have been last year if he had been the main pinch hitter instead of Olmedo Saenz.  Bottom line:  Colletti needs to learn that paying more money doesn’t equal better players.  I’m not saying to never sign a free agent…but please, just be smart about it!

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6 comments

  1. pierreseastmeetswest@yahoo.com

    I don’t feel this way often after reading a blog, but I agree with you 100%. I’m disapointed in the failure to attain A-Rod or Miggy. I would rather see a new power hitting 3rd baseman and the rest of the team remain just about the same. That’s why I would have prefered giving up more than a couple of kids and money for Cabrera and not touch our already established team players. I am wholeheartly against going for one of those FA outfielders to free up Kemp or Ethier in a trade for Cabrera or a starting pitcher. Although I fear Colletti is unfortunately going in that direction. Like you say it looks like he’s trying to make a move to look good. If he wants to look good he’s going to have to find somebody to take Pierre off our hands, and I think that is, by far, the hardest thing to do right now.

  2. pierreseastmeetswest@yahoo.com

    Today, Nov 20th, I have a feeling somebody’s going to go, pretty soon, maybe before Thanksgiven. I think it will be Kemp or Ethier. Maybe after the purchase of a free agent offielder or even before. He will be in the trade for Cabrera. After all is said and done, I don’t think it can be done any other way. I got my pen ready to cross somebody’s name out.

  3. dfktaxman@aol.com

    Lowell signed with the BoSox, A-Rod is back with the Yanks, so the only upgrade for 3rd base is Cabrera. The Marlins asked for Billingsley, Kemp, and Russell and the Dodgers turned them down. I think an offer of LaRoche, Kemp, and Kershaw would do it and I would make that trade. As much potential Kemp and Kershaw have, Cabrera has already done it. Kemp seems to have an attitude problem, lacks hustle, can’t run the bases, but could be a future star anyway. Good, you have to give up good players to get good players. LaRoche is easy to toss in because he has no where to play with Cabrera on board. His stellar stats on Team USA the last two weeks make his attractive. Finally, Kershaw looks great, but any pitcher is just one pitch away from surgery. Remember how highly touted was Edwin Jackson? Never panned out. And, who can count all the Dodger prospects to fall to surgery in the last 5 years. So, Kershaw is no lock.

    Besides, if any of the three become huge stars then the Marlins will be forced to trade them in a few years when their salary is due to escalate. So, you can get Kemp back when he is 28 and in the prime of his career. In the meantime, sign Tori Hunter and make the deal. Think of the nice infield of Loney, Kent/Abreu, Furcal, Cabrera, and Russell. The OF is Pierre, Hunter, and either Delwyn Young or Andre Ethier.

    If Schmidt bounces back to join Penny, Lowe, and Billingsley in the rotation, the Dodgers could win 100 games.

  4. camanoba@dreyers.com

    I am so dissapointed it seem like every year they say that their going to aquire a power hitter.But every year goes by and still the same team maybe we could put torre to play third base i think thats the only positive move that the dodgers did.we need to get rid of colleti pierres signing was the biggest mistake hes not worth that kind of contract.

  5. pierreseastmeetswest@yahoo.com

    It was a little pessimistic(all those past surgeries), but nice post.DFKTAXMAN.^^^^^ HAPPY THANKSGIVING to you, the Bloger maker and to all that post on it.*******Other than Kemp still having to learn to run the bases, I don’t think the rest is as important. I see you posted this before Torii went to the Angels. You’re right, the only regular I can see in the trade for Cabrera is LaRoche, since he’s a 3B man. I believe his performance with TEAM USA is helpful. I really don’t think any changes are necessary on this team especially if Schmidt comes back strong. I happen to be, I’m sure, the only one, who thinks Pierre could play 1B and switch Loney to the outfield. I quess that will be my claim to fame. I’m still against going for a FA outfielder. I agree, COMANOBA, that the worst thing Colletti has ever done, proberly in his life, was to sign the no power, bad throwing outfielder that bears my family name. I’ve been waiting for that power hitter ever since Beltre left, but somehow my mind tells me we already have him, we just got to give it (just little) more time. Well guys it’s time to do the only thing we can possibly do and that is to SIT BACK AND WATCH WHAT HAPPENS.

  6. dfktaxman@aol.com

    Well, it looks like the Angels are going to land Cabrera. The players headed to Florida are already identified and the Marlins just need to find a combination that works for both clubs. So, it looks like a LaRoache/Garciaparra platoon at 3rd for one more year. I have noticed that LaRoache stumbles at each new level during his first year there, so maybe 2008 will be a breakout year for him. If his performance in Taiwan is any indication, things might work out pretty well for the Dodgers and they may never miss Cabrera. They certainly must be a little relieved not to be facing the 5-year, $100+ million contract that Cabrera would have demanded.

    So, they still have those players that they might have traded for Cabrera and are looking at Baltimore’s star pitcher, Erik Bedard. At just age 28, he looks like the real thing with back-to-back solid years. He was especially effective in 2007, with a low ERA(3.16) and lots of strikeouts(221). If joins the rotation, the Dodgers would have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball(assuming that Billingley is not part of the price to obtain him). I wonder what the Orioles are asking for him, but I would give up Kemp and Kershaw, plus another player like Repko. For a number one starter? Yeah, it is a lot to give up, but I bet the Yankees give up more for the Twins’ Santana. Maybe Bedard does not have the years of consistency that Santana has, but they were very similar pitchers last year. So, who would you like for the next six years? I would take Bedard and the money in the bank over Santana. He already turned down a huge contract from the Twins, so you know that his interest in the Yankees has a lot to do with their ability to pay the biggest bucks.

    I hope the Dodgers leave Santana and Cabrera for others to overpay, and stick with a less recognized(but equally effective) player like Bedard.

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